Medicinal cannabis sales in Germany are expected to top €1 billion (A$1.62b) by 2028 in the wake of regulatory changes in the European powerhouse.
Data and intelligence firm Prohibition Partners (PP) said the passing of the CanG bill legalising adult use and the associated MedCanG Act has resulted in significant growth in the medical market, with sales expected to reach €420 million (A$681m) this year.
It said the projected growth was fuelled by factors including the removal of cannabis from Germany’s schedule of narcotic drugs, which has eased previous bottlenecks associated with its handling, distribution, dispensing and prescription.
“This, in part, is fuelling patient population growth, prescription rates and the rise of medical cannabis telemedicine operators,” the company said.
Additionally, the BfArM (The Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices) has removed the tender process for domestic medicinal cannabis cultivation, allowing new players to apply for a licence to cultivate in the country and opening the market to more competition.
“Doctors in Germany have the freedom to prescribe medical cannabis for any condition they deem may significantly help their patients,” PP said. “Additionally, recent policy changes such as removing cannabis from the narcotics list are expected to further improve patient access.”
The volume of medicinal cannabis sold in pharmacies increased by about 30% in Q3 2023 compared with Q3 2022, according to PP’s German Cannabis Report. The number of patients increased significantly again following the implementation of the new cannabis laws in April 2024.
Germany has an established reimbursement framework for medicinal cannabis treatments by statutory health insurers which accounted for approximately half of the market until 2023, PP said
It added: “In July 2024, Germany’s Federal Joint Committee (G-BA) approved proposals to streamline the reimbursement process, which will likely further ease access… as medical cannabis becomes more affordable.”
Despite the growth of the market, PP flagged a future issue for companies exporting to Germany. With the removal of the tender process, the local cultivation market has opened up which, PP noted, will likely lead to an increase in domestic production which could eventually reduce Germany’s reliance on imports.
However, there was no sign of that happening yet, it said, with the adoption of the CanG Act seeing medical cannabis imports rise 44%, with Q2 2024 imports reaching an all-time quarterly high of 11,706 kilograms compared with 8,143kg in Q1.
PP senior analyst and co-author of the report Alex Khourdaji said the country’s cannabis market is at “a pivotal point”.
He added: “The CanG Act has set in motion a series of transformative changes, creating both opportunities and challenges for businesses and consumers alike.
“The success of these reforms will depend on ongoing adaptation and a commitment to finding a balance between public health, social responsibility, and economic growth.”
