The minimum price of medicinal cannabis flower in Australia has dropped to $3.30 per gram to the patient, with honahlee co-founder Tom Brown warning the trend raises serious questions about the future of local cultivation.
The figure is part of a broader price shift, with 39% of all flower products now selling for less than $10 per gram, up from 27% in January.
Speaking at A Cannabis 2025 in Melbourne, Brown said the figure related to fully packaged products – not wholesale – and was already matching bulk sale prices from some domestic growers.
“We know some Australian cultivators are aiming to sell their product in bulk at $3.30 before packaging,” he told attendees.
“It’s hard to see where Australian cultivation is going to go in terms of API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient).”
Brown’s latest analysis follows honahlee’s previous market update in February, which charted a similar downward trend in flower prices.
He said the biggest shift in recent years had occurred at the bottom end of the market.
“When I last presented this slide, there were 23 SKUs at less than $6 a gram to the patient. Now there are 51,” he said.
“In January, 27% of flower products were priced under $10 a gram. Six months later, that’s up to 39%.”
While the total number of SKUs continues to rise, growth in flower products has slowed sharply.
In H2 2024, the number of flower SKUs jumped 72%, but in H1 2025 the increase was just 11% — a slowdown Brown said was unsurprising given the “oversaturated” market.
Vape cartridges followed a similar trend, with growth also slowing. H1 2025 saw 10 new SKUs – an 8% increase – compared to a 92% jump in H2 2024.
By contrast, pastilles recorded the largest relative growth of any dosage form, increasing about 75% in H1 2025 – roughly 51 new SKUs – with more than 10 additional products already listed as coming soon and more expected to follow.
Pastilles were followed by concentrates, which grew 71% in H1 2025, although this was just five new SKUs, while oils rose 5% with around 12 additions.
Brown also noted an “interesting oil” designed as a drink or food additive had entered the market, claiming increased absorption.
On country of origin, Canada remains the largest API source, supplying around 45% of the market, while Australia accounts for roughly 26%.
Thailand has also emerged as an API source, with 24 listed products plus several others known to originate there but not formally recorded.
One positive trend for the local market, according to Brown, was that packaging in Australia continued to grow from 58% of all products in January to 65% in July.
“This does indicate continued growth of local GMP manufacturing, which is great for the local industry and economy,” he said.
On the topic of terpenes, Brown expressed disappointment at the current market, citing a lack of reliable product data and verification.
“In an overcrowded market with little differentiation, reporting terpenes from batch to batch and actually being able to verify your claims can actually make you stand out,” he said.
“Practitioners have more incentive to prescribe products that have a validated terpene profile and patients are searching for terpene profiles consistently [and] talking to their practitioners about what terpenes are in their products.
“The total percentage of products with terpenes measured has decreased from about 23% to 21% since January… [and] 65% of products that list terpene claims don’t have certificates of analysis to back them up.”
Looking ahead, Brown predicted an increase in concentrate products, noting suppliers are actively educating prescribers and highlighting potential advantages over vape cartridges.
“Practitioners are starting to recognise that non-vape concentrates are really no different to vape carts they’re already prescribing – and in many cases may offer better medicinal benefits due to factors like terpene profile or content,” he said.
He added that as suppliers seek to differentiate through minor cannabinoids and terpenes, established players would face increasing pressure to provide greater transparency.
Meanwhile, Penington Institute’s Rhys Cohen told the session that medicinal cannabis unit sales in Australia grew 106% year-on-year in 2024, with more than 3.7 million units sold in the second half alone, taking the annual total to 6.6 million.
He also cautioned against placing too much weight on SAS-B prescribing data, noting that Authorised Prescribers now account for “90% of units sold in this market.”
NostraData general manager Nick Biggs said price compression was also evident at the pharmacy level.
“We are getting a little bit of compression on margin as well,” he said.